Drought ‘break’ remains some way ahead

AgFirst Northland farm consultant Bob Thomson: Early destocking the most cost-effective management.

01-03-2010 | Hugh Stringleman

AgFirst Northland advisers Bob Thomson and Gareth Baynham were planning a week-long series of Northland drought workshops on Auckland Anniversary Day - as rain poured down over Whangarei.

"We wondered what are we doing here?" Baynham recounted to sheep and beef farmers later in the week.

They left him in no doubt that drought management was still important, as their experience, intuition and the NIWA long-range forecast suggested that Northland's drought would not "break" until April or May.

Then Northland Drought Committee co-ordinator Helen Moodie passed around a Northland Regional Council chart of the rainfall pattern from earlier in the week. On February 1 an easterly front delivered more than 24 hours of rain across the centre of the province, with the largest totals up to 90mm over Whangarei, Hikurangi, Puhipuhi and extending across to the west coast, north of Dargaville. Both north and south of that zone, especially around the parched Bay of Islands and the Far North, smaller numbers were recorded, averaging 10-40mm.

Not that farmers at the meetings were ungrateful, having received less than that in total over the previous three months. It was all welcome, but even in the 90mm districts one rainfall event doesn't break a drought.

Follow-up rain is desperately needed, but the prospects are not good.

Thomson and Baynham, commissioned by the drought committee and funded by the Government, surveyed farmers who attended the meetings and found that beef producers had already reduced cattle numbers by up to 40%. No surprise then that the major message of the farm advisers and their long-time farmer speakers was "reduce stock numbers early, conserve pasture cover, and be in a position to restock after it rains".

"Planning is absolutely essential, working on the worst-case scenario," said Roger Taylor, an agricultural recovery facilitator on the committee, and a beef and dairy farmer in Northland all his life.

"Early decisions are the best, because they give you options in the drought and when it rains."

Ah yes, but when will it rain again?

Waiotira farmers wanted Thomson to feed budget for 90 more days on daily pasture growth rates at no more than half of the monthly averages for February, March and April. He thought 50 days followed by autumn kikuyu pasture recovery would be more realistic.

Younger farmers had heard Richard Drake, of Tangiteroria, recount that in 1983 it stopped raining at Christmas and didn't start again until April 20.

"Until Christmas that year we had a reasonable season, but the drought impact was hard, physically debilitating and we learned a lot of lessons," Drake recalled. "Water was the biggest problem, on limited farm supplies, and we lost a lot of calves to ryegrass staggers and bogging in the dams and creeks.

"This time we are well behind 1983, after a challenging spring, with no hay made. We haven't had a severe summer drought since 1983, due to a change in weather patterns, but prior to that we had several like this one, and the break didn't come till the end of April."

Drake advised a conservative approach, with substantial reduction in stock numbers.

Baynham reported that farmers across Northland did not have feed stored because of the cold spring and lack of rainfall since November.

"While you might be feeling more comfortable after Monday's rain, there could be a long way to go yet until the end of April," he said.

Even monthly average rainfalls during the next three months would not recharge soil moisture deficits which have built up since November.

Farmers were advised to keep a rotation going, even though it seemed pointless when stock were going into paddocks with little more cover than the ones left behind.

"The agronomists tell us that very low pasture covers add stress to the pastures and delay recovery," Baynham said. "There is no seed bank of ryegrass, unlike clover, so what might grow after rain might be mainly poa annua, raising a need to resow ryegrass in the future, although I appreciate that is an expense you can do without right now.

"After it rains dry pasture will rot quickly, especially the leaf content, which will be a breeding ground for internal parasites and facial eczema spores, because we don't have the kikuyu safety blanket this year.

"We know that with good clean water, stock will do quite well on dry pasture, but maybe you should consider feed supplementation after it rains."

That being the case, palm kernel expeller (PKE) is the lowest-cost supplement right now, with baled silage being quoted over $100/bale. PKE could be fed at 30c/kg DM, versus alternatives over 50c. Farmers also needed to feed off the poplars and willows, stream banks, roadsides and wet patches.

"You need to hook in to winter feed now, because when winter comes you will have more options," Thomson said.

He ran some Farmax scenarios on the average Northland sheep and beef farm of 314ha, comparing a "do nothing" approach to holding stock numbers and feeding PKE and to destocking early and buying back in May and June. He ran the exercise over two years because the effects would be felt over that time.

"Do nothing, maintain livestock numbers and let them get skinny and your pastures will take a long time to recover, and the cost will be $43,000 over two years," he said.

"Hold stock numbers and feed PKE and that cost goes up to $64,000. But sell your stock early and the pasture comes back faster and the drought cost is limited to $20,000."

Farmers always worry about the costs of restocking, so Thomson ran a sensitivity analysis to prices 10% and 20% higher than at present. At $1.75/kg LW for restocking the drought impact over two years was $20,000. At $1.93/kg it rose to $36,000 and at $2.10/kg to $53,000.

"I think that shows that destocking is cost-effective compared with the alternatives, even at premium buy-in prices, and it reduces stress on the farmer. And ask yourself, will restocking cattle be huge prices in May and June when Northland is the only bad drought region at present?"

Farmers agreed that the store markets were good right now, at around $1.70/kg LW, because of demand from south of Auckland, but it remained to be seen if those values would be around in May and June.

Thomson also warned against making ewes do it hard in the drought because "you have got more to lose now". In contrast with the 1983 drought, when 50kg LW ewes were doing 90% lambing, today's 60kg ewes are doing 130-140% lambing so "you have further to fall".

Feed supplementation with PKE could be quite cost-effective with high-performance sheep.

In summary, it was more important to maximise income after the drought than minimise costs during the drought. Losing weight on cows and ewes now by under-feeding would cost far more in under-production next season.

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